Tuesday, November 9, 2010

2011 Outlook


The 2010 season had its up’s and down’s for the Tiger’s. They were killed with injuries and a lot of poor starting pitching, guys not named Verlander. There is hope in Detroit though, as they shed over 60 million in payroll after seasons end. The MLB’s “hot stove” is a buzz, many people think although Detroit wants to cut last season’s payroll does not mean they won’t spend upwards to 40 million this off season.

There is many good player’s up for grabs and Detroit needs to be aggressive!

Here is what should be done by the GM Dombrowski. There are obvious holes and questions in the outfield. Last year they found there gem CF in Austin Jackson, but to the left and right of him is open. Right away, throw 115 million at Carl Crawford for 5 years. There is debate to who is the better value, Werth or Crawford. It’s easy CC is a stud, is last 3 year’s averages are,295avg,14 homers,72 rbi’s,44 stolen bases, not to mention he’s good for 10-15 triples a year. With him in left, Jackson in right the defense would be great in the spacey Comerica Park. Now as far as the right field job goes, let’s keep that in house ad go with Ryan Rayburn. The last two seasons he has come on strong at the end, when he gets to play every day. As an everyday started he should give you 275avg, 20 homers, 80 rbi’s. This would make Detroit have the best defensive outfield in baseball. We still need to fill the DH spot; many people think Mags will return but not me. The Tiger’s always make smart trades and they will do it again. The Prince will enter Detroit. Yes another powerful Fielder in a Tiger’s uniform. Tiger’s should send, 2b Sizemore, P Andy Oliver, 1b Ryan Strieby, Armando Galarraga to Milwaukee for Prince Fielder. Prince would give Miggy protection in the lineup like never before. Alex Avila, is a lock to start at catcher, I would love the Tigers to sign Brad Ausmes to a 1 year deal to help tutor Avila. Brad can still hit for average and would make a nice backup even though he is 40 years old. SS and 3rd are set with Inge, and Perallta locked in. 2nd base, however, will be the biggest position to watch in Spring. I really like Will Rhymes to get the nod here. Last year he his 304 in 191 ab’s.

I also want to see Detroit address some pitching. They should sign hard throwing Grant Balfour free agent from Tampa. Grant would go perfect in the 7th with Zumaya in the 8th and Valverde in the 9th. They should take a chance on Brad Penny as their 4th starter; he will be cheap and also could be a great bargain. Phil Coke will move from bullpen to 5th starter.

My 2011 Projected Tigers Opening Day Team- Projections


1-CF Austin Jackson .300avg, 25+ SB, 100+runs---All Star

2-LF Carl Crawford .300avg, 40+ SB, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 15 3b---All Star

3-RF-Ryan Rayburn .270avg, 20 HR, 80 RBI

4-1B- Miguel Cabrera +300avg, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 100+runs---All Star

5-DH- Prince Fielder .265avg, 30 HR, 100 RBI

6-SS- Jhonny Peralta .260 AVG, 15 HR, 80 RBI

7-C- Alex Avila .250 Avg, 13 HR, 50 RBI, Good Behind Plate

8-3B- Brandon Inge .250 AVG, 15 HR, 70 RBI Gold Glove

9-2B- Will Rhymes .270 AVG, 5 HR, 45 RBI, 20+ 2B

Starting Rotation

SP1-Justin Verlander 19-7 3.30 ERA 170+ K’s---All Star

SP2-Max Scherzer 15-8 3.80 ERA 170+ K’s

SP3-Rick Porcello 13-10 4.25 ERA Must have good control KEY TO SUCCESS

SP4-Brad Penny 11-7 4.35 ERA 120+K’s

SP5-Phil Coke 10-10 4.50 ERA

Bench Players

2b/dh/1b- Carlos Guillen-If healthy for start of season could play big role during year if Rhymes or Peralta should struggle, as well as making starts at least twice a week.

LF, RF-Brennan Boesch- Impressive start last season, horrible end 4th OF and best PH

INF UTIL-Ramon Santiago -Could get start at 2B. Great Util. player

2b, SS, CF, 3b- Don Kelly-plays anywhere 9 HR in 238 AB

C-Brad Ausmus-Mentor, good for clubhouse

Bullpen-

Closer-Jose Valverde

Setup-Joel Zumaya

RHP Grant Balfour

RHP Ryan Perry

LHP Daniel Schlereth

LHP Brad Thomas

3 comments:

bosshog21060 said...

Can only hope the Tigers can sign players like Prince Fielder and Carl Crawford. I believe this would make them instant contenders. Don't know if Zumaya will ever be the same again, might have to settle for a 92-97 mph. fastball. lol, Keep up the good blogs.

Corey E. said...

A few things:

1) It would take a much better package than the one you proposed to land a player of Fielder's caliber. You've essentially suggested the Brewers would accept a poo-poo platter of mediocre prospects and a 4th or 5th starter.

That's just not how trades for high-end players work.

It hurts the Tigers don't really have any particularly highly regarded prospects - their best, Turner was only ranked in the 40's by Baseball America.

2) While it's not entirely infeasible that the Tigers could acquire Fielder by packaging together Turner and Crosby, I dont see it being a wise move.

Consider:

In acquiring Fielder, you'll be getting a player who is A) a bad body type (they tend to decline early) who B) will require a massive payroll layout that designated hitters simply aren't worth and in the process making a massive investment in prospects.

If you presume that the production you get from the existing DHs would be worth at least 2.0WAR in 2011 - a perfectly likely projection - you're gaining maybe 3.0 WAR per year.

On it's own, 3.0 WAR is worth about 12.75m in free agency.

Why not simply invest about 10-12m per year into Victor Martinez, and get a similar 3.0 WAR improvement at catcher?

You'll A) save the team money B) improve the team at one of it's weakest positions C) protect the team from a long term contract to a bad-body player and D) not give up the Franchise's best prospects in the process.

bosshog21060 said...

Tigers sign Benoit today!! Great signing. 16.5 for three years, well worth it. I don't see the Tigers having enough money to sign Marinez, Fielder, and Crawford. I don't think Crawford ends up a Tiger. I think they have a good chance of signing Martinez, and possibly trading for Fielder. Possibly might even move Zumaya now if he's not damaged goods already.